The Advance

Issue date: 11/3/06 Section: News

After millions of dollars in ads, polls, and six-figure consultants, the 2006 elections could turn on one final, frantic, door-to-door battle: who wins the voter turnout game.

A little more than a week before voters decide who will control Congress next year, that game is played out in a half-dozen battleground Senate races and 40 to 50 closely-contested House elections across the country.

While the Democrats lead in the Senate races (enough to take control of that chamber) and in 20 or more House races (they need only 15 to take control), many contests appear close enough where turnout could make the crucial difference. That is, keeping Democratic gains lower than they would be otherwise.

No one doubts who has the stronger voter turnout ground game: the Republicans.
Still, contrary to a belief in some Republican circles that its base is fragmented and disillusioned, polls show Republicans rallying to their party. This week, for example, a survey for The Washington Post-ABC News showed 88 percent of Republican voters supporting their party in the congressional elections.

However, it also shows 95 percent of the Democrats and a whopping 59 percent of independents favoring the Democratic candidate in their congressional districts.
Stronger Republican voter turnout in a number of the closest House races could conceivably overcome that disadvantage in Republican-drawn districts where Republican voters vastly outnumber Democrats.
Still, there can be no question that Republican prospects look bleak. The GOP's only hope is a stronger voter turnout performance in enough states to keep the Democrats expected gains as low as possible.

Page 1 of 1

Article Tools